Influence
Part 2  Reading the Body
Chapter 53 of 360

The Eyes Don’t Have It: Killing the NLP Eye-Movement Model

Neuro-linguistic programming teaches that eye movements reveal cognitive process. Looking up and to the observer's right indicates constructed visual imagery — that is, invention. Up and to the left indicates remembered imagery. There is a full diagram, with lateral positions for auditory and downward for kinesthetic and internal dialogue, and it has been taught in sales training, management courses, interview coaching and police training for forty years.

Richard Wiseman, Caroline Watt and colleagues tested it in 2012 and published the results in PLOS ONE under a title that does not leave much room for negotiation: The Eyes Don't Have It.

Three studies. In the first, participants told truths and lies while being filmed, and their eye movements were coded. There was no relationship between the direction of gaze and whether the statement was true — none in the predicted direction, none in any direction. In the second, one group of observers was trained in the eye-movement model and another was not, and both then judged truthfulness. Training produced no improvement in accuracy.

The third study is the one that closes the door. Rather than laboratory lies, the researchers analyzed real footage: press conferences given by people appealing for the return of a missing relative or for information about a murder, in cases where it was subsequently established by conviction whether the appealer was responsible. High-stakes, genuine, consequential deception. Again, no relationship between eye direction and deception.

The model has no support. It never had support — it originated in the 1970s as a clinical observation by Bandler and Grinder and was propagated without a validating study ever being produced.

Why this chapter is here, in a guide about manipulation rather than a guide about psychology, is the propagation.

An idea with no evidence behind it became standard content in a global training industry because it has properties that have nothing to do with truth. It is memorable: a diagram with six positions. It is teachable in ten minutes, which suits a two-day course. It confers immediate apparent expertise on the person who has learned it, which is what the buyer of training is purchasing. It generates confident judgments quickly. And it is unfalsifiable in the field, because the trainee will never receive feedback on whether their reads were correct — the same feedback vacuum as the previous chapter.

Those five properties select for ideas independently of whether the ideas work. Which means the professional training market is not a filter for validity, and its output should not be treated as evidence about anything.

This gives a general audit procedure for any nonverbal claim you encounter, and it is worth carrying:

Ask what the original study was, who ran it, and whether it was published somewhere that reviewed it. Ask whether anyone has replicated it who was not invested in the result. Ask whether the test was blind and whether the measurement was automated, since chapter 59 shows what happens otherwise. Ask what the effect size was in absolute terms, not whether it was significant. And ask what evidence would have shown the claim to be false, which is the question a diagram cannot answer.

The case

Richard Wiseman, Caroline Watt and colleagues‘ 2012 PLOS ONE study ’The Eyes Don’t Have It: Lie Detection and Neuro-Linguistic Programming', which tested the claim that looking up-right indicates fabrication and found no relationship in either laboratory lies or real-world press-conference footage.

The mechanism

Neuro-linguistic programming’s eye-accessing-cue model asserts that gaze direction maps onto constructed versus remembered imagery; Wiseman’s three studies, including analysis of genuine and deceptive public appeals, found no such pattern, and training observers in the model did not improve accuracy. The persistence of the belief illustrates how a memorable, teachable heuristic spreads through professional training markets without validation. For the reader, this is a template for auditing any nonverbal claim: ask for the pre-registered test, not the diagram.

What this chapter covers

  1. Origin of NLP eye-accessing-cue claims
  2. No mapping between gaze direction and fabrication
  3. Wiseman’s 2012 PLOS ONE experiments
  4. Corporate NLP training and interview coaching
  5. A diagram taught with no supporting data

See Defense: auditing nonverbal training claims